President-elect Trump’s intention to nominate former Congressman Sean Duffy (R-WI)  to be Secretary of Transportation caught the transportation community out of the blue this week, but now that the dust has settled, it seems likely that the Senate will confirm Duffy early next year.

No specific criticism of Duffy’s nomination has emerged yet from Senate Democrats, and unless something odd and unusual turns up on a background check, there probably won’t be much opposition, for several reasons.

1. There is a long and bipartisan tradition of deferring to a new President’s nominees for senior positions unless there is something drastically wrong with the character and/or the views of the nominee.
2. Duffy made it through 8-and-a-half years of service in Congress without crossing any known ethics tripwieres and emerged reasonably well-liked, which counts for a lot.
3. Even though he has no specific background as a subject expert in transportation, neither did Claude Brinegar (R), Neil Goldschmidt (D), Elizabeth Dole (R), Andy Card (R), Federico Pena (D), Ray LaHood (D POTUS), Anthony Foxx (D), or Pete Buttigieg (D).
4. Democrats only have so much energy to use when fighting who they see as bad or dangerous Trump appointees, and even with Matt Gaetz gone, Senate Democrats are much more concerned about Pete Hegseth at Defense, Tulsi Gabbard at the Directorate of National Intelligence, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at HHS, and there will almost certainly be many more picks between now and January 20 who Democrats are more eager to fight than Sean Duffy.
5. In Trump’s first time around, there was a lot of performative “Resistance” going on, with at least eight Democratic Senators eyeing the 2020 Presidential nomination and thus voting “no” on every single Trump nomination and proposal. (Even Elaine Chao’s nomination – a well-liked Senate spouse and member of the “club” – got 6 “no” votes.) As it turns out, performative “Resistance: wound up with Trump back in the White House four years delayed, so some Democrats are trying to pick battles more carefully this time.

For most of its history, USDOT has run on an “outside-inside” personnel strategy. The Secretary (S-1) is Mr./Ms. Outside, being the public face of the Department and taking the lead in dealing with Congress, with other Cabinet Secretaries, and with state governors and big-city mayors. The Secretary flies around to a lot of ribbon-cuttings and provides public accountability.

The Deputy Secretary (S-2) is Mr./Ms. Inside, and rides herd over the various USDOT modal administrations to make sure the Administration’s orders and policies are carried out. The S-2 handles deputies-level organizational meetings att the White House and makes sure that the promises made by the Secretary are duly recorded and carried out by the Department’s employees. S-2 is, in effect, the chief operating officer to S-1’s CEO.

So when you have an incoming S-1 who doesn’t have much of a background in transportation, the S-2 becomes even more pivotal. The somewhat ad hoc nature of the incoming POTUS’s appointment process means that we don’t have a good handle on likely S-2 candidates yet.

Here is what we wrote about Duffy when the news broke earlier this week:

Trump’s announcement said that, as Secretary, Duffy “will prioritize Excellence, Competence, Competitiveness, and Beauty when rebuilding America’s highways, tunnels, bridges, and airports. He will ensure our ports and dams serve our Economy without compromising our National Security, and he will make our skies safe again by eliminating DEI for pilots and air traffic controllers…Sean will use his experience and the relationships he has built over many years in Congress to maintain and rebuild our Nation’s Infrastructure, and fulfill our Mission of ushering in The Golden Age of Travel, focusing on Safety, Efficiency, and Innovation. Importantly, he will greatly elevate the Travel Experience for all Americans!”

Duffy has been co-host of a Fox Business News TV show since 2022, but first rose to national prominence in 1996 when he was a cast member on the sixth season of MTV’s The Real World (the one in Boston) and then again in 1997 on MTV’s Road Rules: All-Stars, where he met his future wife Rachel Campos (who is one of the co-hosts of Fox & Friends Weekend on Fox News). Duffy spent the money he made from reality TV on law school and was named Acting District Attorney of Ashland County, Wisconsin (population: 16,000) in 2002 and then was successfully re-elected several times.

In 2009, Duffy filed papers to run for Congress against legendary 40-year incumbent Dave Obey (D-WI), chairman of the Appropriations Committee. Obey then unexpectedly announced his retirement in May 2010, rather late in the cycle, which gave Duffy a logistical leg up over the eventual Democratic nominee in what was already a very Republican year, and Duffy won the general election, 52%-44%.

Capturing Obey’s seat made Duffy such a celebrity in GOP circles that he was given a seat on the exclusive Financial Services Committee as a freshman. This meant that he never had to go through the experience of serving on non-exclusive committees like Transportation and Infrastructure, which also means that he did not have much close interaction with transportation issues while in Congress.

Duffy served four full terms in Congress and has started a fifth before retiring due to a family health issue in fall 2019.