The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is scheduled to release its annual Budget and Economic Outlook later today.

Because we are trying to get ETW back on a schedule for release mid-day on Fridays (instead of hustling to get it done by COB on Friday), we are publishing without waiting for this, and after a fun weekend with football and Microsoft Excel, we hope to have an ETW Express on Tuesday, January 21, explaining what all is in there. But at a minimum:

• The 10-year budget projections will have some horrifyingly large budget deficit projections over the next ten years, driven largely by increased interest costs on the federal debt. (I mean, last week CBO announced that the federal deficit for just the first three months of fiscal 2025 was $710 billion, for Pete’s sake. In a time of relative peace and prosperity.) Keep an eye on the total projections for deficits and public debt, and then watch what the markets for 10, 20, and 30-year Treasury securities do after that. The bond vigilantes are coming back, people. (Read Bob Woodward’s The Agenda to find out how the bond vigilantes affected Bill Clinton’s first-year economic plan, and that book also explains why the last gasoline tax increase happened.)
• The Outlook should have the updated, official estimate as to how much deficits will increase if the expiring tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform bill are extended. This will be key to finding offsets for as much of that cost as possible in budget reconciliation.
• As part of the release of supporting data, CBO should also eventually post an updated Highway Trust Fund cash flow forecast, with a revised insolvency date and updated fuel tax receipt estimates, to enlighten the debate on how to reauthorize Trust Fund programs next year.

All that, and more, on the 21st.