As U.S. transportation agencies navigate rapid technological disruption, climate-driven shocks, demographic shifts, and financial volatility, new approaches enable agencies to adapt their planning practices to build robust plans that perform well across a wide range of possible futures. These approaches are explored in a report released today by the Eno Center for Transportation on “Planning in the Age of Uncertainty: Advancing Transportation Resilience Through Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU).” Developed with insights from agency case studies and interviews, the paper introduces and evaluates scenario-style quantitative methods for both long-range and operational planning. These methods can be implemented with FHWA-supported tools to help metropolitan planning organizations and state transportation departments make robust decisions despite a future that is increasingly hard to predict.  

White Paper Findings 

Unlike traditional ‘predict-then-act’ planning methods that generate single-point forecasts assuming stable trends, Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods stress-test strategies across thousands of plausible futures. For example, instead of predicting traffic on a major street in 2035 given the area’s population and employment growth, we obtain 100s of values across the spectrum of growth-related assumptions. Agencies such as TransLink in Metro Vancouver and the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) have implemented DMDU techniques like exploratory modeling and Robust Decision Making, and have found that they helped planners and executives confront fast-changing ridership patterns, pandemic shocks, and major uncertainties about future investment needs. 

While these pioneering efforts have increased confidence in long-range plans and protected agencies from overbuilding or underinvesting in critical infrastructure, the report also uncovers ongoing challenges. Organizational factors such as technical capacity, integration of new modeling tools, leadership buy-in, and the need to communicate complex results remain significant barriers to making uncertainty-aware planning mainstream practice. Drawing on the lessons learned, the study presents actionable recommendations for research, professional development, inter-agency knowledge sharing, and targeted policy incentives to encourage broader adoption. 

Significance 

With federal, state, and local governments investing more than $290 billion annually in transportation, the stakes for making resilient, future-ready decisions have never been higher. As the world faces more frequent and severe disruptions, from pandemics to climate impacts, the need for robust, adaptive planning has become urgent. As this new report demonstrates, incorporating DMDU into regular planning, offering both strategic insights and pragmatic steps to navigate the “age of uncertainty.” 

The report’s findings highlight that: 

1. DMDU approaches can be adopted in all types of transportation agencies, for both long range and project level planning  
2. Certain applications of DMDU may have greater impact and benefit, particularly those planning efforts that involve higher levels of uncertainty 
3. Existing applications of DMDU are concentrated on the Pacific coast and more diverse demonstrations are needed 
4. Best practices are taking shape but require deliberate support from existing federal programs to develop fully 
5. While sophisticated, DMDU analyses can be built as an add-on to existing agency modeling setup and do not necessarily require external support 

Robust transportation decision making in the US will benefit from progressively supporting DMDU. It should start with USDOT’s intentional support for DMDU research focused on establishing best practices and enabling peer learning under FHWA’s Transportation Planning Capacity Building program. This must be followed by recognizing early adopters and leaders in robust planning. After successful demonstrations, offering incentives and allocating conditional funding for DMDU-supported projects could help with mainstreaming. 

To build transportation systems that thrive amid deep uncertainties, agencies will need to combine technical innovation with organizational learning, peer exchange, and policy support. With relatively low-key efforts, U.S. transportation sector can move beyond pilot projects and into an era where robust, uncertainty-aware planning is standard practice. 

Download the full white paper “Planning in the Age of Uncertainty” from Eno’s website for detailed case studies and policy recommendations for the future of robust transportation planning.