We are in the most dynamic period in the history of travel in our lifetimes. From the end of World War II until early this century travel increased rapidly. The suburbs flourished, women joined the workforce and auto ownership increased dramatically. Roadway travel grew by almost 5% per year, outpacing population growth of under 2% per year. However, early in the current century things changed significantly, the total vehicle miles of roadway travel only increased 20% in the 20 years since 2004. The U.S. per capita daily trip rate declined 16 percent from 2004 to 2019, and the post-COVID 2024 rate is nearly 30 percent lower than the 2004 rate. The growing availability of the Internet, computer connections and smartphones, the rapid growth of social media, an aging and slower growing population, and changes in peoples’ priorities, time use, and businesses practices culminated in meaningful changes in travel. Telework, e-commerce, and other communication substitutions for travel, driver assistance technologies, improvements in logistics, and online trip scheduling, routing, and payment, the emergence of new travel vehicles and services (Uber, Lyft, shared bikes, e-bikes, delivery drones, scooters, etc.), and movement toward electrification, are dramatically changing transportation.  Progress deploying automated vehicles for people and freight, the emergence of artificial intelligence with yet unknown consequences, changing demographic trends and values, changing global production and supply chain patterns, and the inevitable unknowns suggest continued changes in person and commodity travel in America.

One Hundred Traffic Fatalities a Day Too Many

Travel safety remains the top priority of virtually every transportation agency at all levels of government. Multiple USDOT programs focus on understanding and improving safety across all modes. However, a quick overview of the data suggests a rather gaping hole in the federal focus on improving safety. While multiple factors contribute to crashes involving fatalities, 2023 data indicate that 30% of fatalities involved drivers impaired by alcohol. Speeding is a contributing cause in 29% of fatal accidents. Failure to use seat belts is a contributing factor in 49% of fatalities of occupants where restraint use is known. Distracted driving is a reported causal factor in 8% of fatal accidents. Behaviors like failing to properly maintain vehicles, driving under the influence of legal or illegal drugs, or driving in high-risk extreme conditions are other factors. While programs that improve infrastructure and regulate vehicles to improve safety should continue, there’s compelling evidence that driver behaviors or perhaps more appropriately “misbehaviors” are a huge factor.

The U.S. should encourage or mandate stricter standards for defining impaired driving as we are an outlier, far more lenient than other developed nations. Misbehaviors have been tolerated as have been lax drivers licensing standards and spotty vehicle insurance coverage compliance. We should not have to hear repeatedly about traffic fatalities where the driver has had multiple previous DUI arrests. Talking about safety being a priority but being reluctant to aggressively pursue actions that could offer meaningful results is simply posturing. Working with the states and stakeholders on enforcement and driver behavior changes needs immediate attention. Leveraging technologies to enhance enforcement will improve efficiency, reduce enforcement bias, and improve enforcement safety. A recent national survey indicated that over two-thirds of the public strongly or somewhat favored using cameras for safety enforcement.  Until automation is widely available driver misbehaviors need to be targeted.

Transportation Funding

A multitude of analyses have explored transportation funding. There are no easy answers. It is particularly challenging in an era where the party affiliation of the proposer often has more influence on support than does the merits of the proposal. Thirteen states just raised gas taxes this July. A majority of states have increased fuel taxes in recent years, and a similar majority have added fees for electric vehicles. User fees are a logical mechanism for supporting transportation. Current fuel cost per mile traveled are near historic lows when accounting for vehicle efficiency and inflation. User fees can provide spending discipline and can play a role in influencing geographic and modal equity. User fees, by influencing travel costs, provide market feedback and can influence travel behaviors, vehicle choice decisions, and location and activity decisions. Current federal fuel taxes average about $100-125 per year per personal vehicle – often less than one’s monthly bill for internet and cell phone service. While mileage-based fee concepts will mature overtime, administrative costs and outstanding issues regarding deployment prevent them being near term solutions. If we want to build big, beautiful stuff we should not dump more debt on future generations.

Reauthorization to Position USDOT to Enable and Support the Path Forward   

U.S. transportation authorizing legislation is a little like an old highway. It gets some attention every several years or so, some parts are tweaked, some patches, a few new bells and whistles, maybe a little widening, patches on top of patches. But seldom a rebuild, not a comprehensive evaluation and redesign – never enough time? Federal transportation legislation needs a comprehensive rewrite to address current and emerging challenges facing transportation. The modal silo structure of USDOT organization needs review and updating. Multiple modes and the extensive multimodal nature of both person and freight travel were not as dominant when this structure was implemented.

The financial management and procurement processes need updating. The multitude of programs, list of congressional mandates, prescribed reports, formulas for trust fund distribution, and layers of regulations need comprehensive reviews. The painfully slow processes of filling political appointments and senior career positions stymies progress. The federal role, relative to other levels of government and the private sector needs to be sorted out in the context of increasingly technology intensive, operationally complex transportation systems. The agency’s resources and capabilities need to be in sync with its mission – not easy, but a commonsense management approach.

One of the most significant “innovations” would be to find a way to actually get reauthorization and annual appropriations done on time and to get critical issues addressed before a crisis. The costs, in time and dollars of the repeated disruptions and the uncertainties caused by authorization and appropriation delays undermine the ability of USDOT to deliver. USDOT would be a good agency to pilot the often talked about but never implemented idea of switching to a biennial appropriations budget.  The presence of the Highway Trust Fund and the capital project nature of the spending make USDOT an ideal candidate for biennial budgets.

Reauthorization opportunity knocks.