The standard pivot from primary to general election could make life hard for Republican candidates this summer, as the focus on immigration shows no signs of waning, and there appears to be a wide gulf between the general electorate and GOP voters.
A Quinnipiac poll of 905 voters conducted from June 14-17 found widespread opposition to the administration’s family separation policy among almost every cohort except Republicans. According to the survey, “voters oppose 66-27 percent the policy of separating children and parents when families illegally cross the border into America,” Quinnipiac reported on Monday. But Republican voters, the poll found, “support the separation policy 55-35 percent, the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group to support it.”
This pattern was repeated again when the survey asked voters about building a border wall. “American voters oppose 58-39 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. The only listed groups to support the wall are Republicans 77-17 percent and white voters with no college degree 52-44 percent,” noted Quinnipiac. Fifty percent of voters also said the Trump administration has been “too aggressive in deporting immigrants who are here illegally.” Only ten percent of Republican voters agreed.
It’s no secret Republican candidates have been trying hard to out-Trump each other in midterm primary battles, accurately sensing high support for the president and his policies among the party’s base. In many races, that’s meant trading tough talk on immigration. During Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial primary, one candidate memorably rolled out a literal “Deportation bus” shortly before election day.
There are almost certainly regional variations in public opinion on this issue, of course. But Quinnipiac’s wide 66 percent-27 percent margin on the family separation policy puts Republican candidates in a precarious position, if 55 percent of their voters support it. Consider the border wall too, which is opposed by 58 percent of all voters but supported by 77 percent of Republican voters.
As primary races are settled and summer turns to fall, Republican candidates will have to reconcile the policies and rhetoric they campaigned on in the competition for GOP voters with the opinions of the broader electorate. It’s obviously routine for political candidates to moderate in the transition from primary to general election, and plenty of Democrats are sure to struggle as well (for instance, Randy Bryce is running for House Speaker Paul Ryan’s seat in Wisconsin on a platform that includes abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement). But the big gaps Quinnipiac’s survey found suggest the increased focus on immigration could make that task much more difficult for Republicans heading into November.
